Buckeyes set sights on Gophers in Big Ten brawl

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/14/2012 - Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The sixth-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes will try bounce back from their poorest outing of the season as they head to Williams Arena to take on Tubby Smith's Minnesota Golden Gophers in a Big Ten Conference matchup.

This is the only scheduled contest between Ohio State and Minnesota this season. The Buckeyes lead the all-time series 80-49 and they currently hold a four-game winning streak over the Golden Gophers.

Thad Matta's team lost sole possession of first place in the Big Ten's standings on Saturday as it fell 58-48 to the Michigan State Spartans, who the Buckeyes are now tied with atop the conference. Ohio State submitted season-lows in points (48), field goal percentage (26.4), and three-point percentage (13.3) in the losing effort. The defeat snapped a six-game winning streak. The Buckeyes have not lost consecutive games yet this season. Ohio State cannot afford to lose tonight as it still has to play three ranked opponents in addition to Illinois, which knocked off OSU earlier this season.

All-American Jared Sullinger leads the charge for Ohio State with averages of 17.4 ppg and 9.3 rpg. The star sophomore recorded a double-double with 17 points and 16 rebounds versus Michigan State. Sullinger has now recorded 11 double-doubles this season. William Buford and Deshaun Thomas are both quality players for the Buckeyes as they each have scoring averages near 15 ppg. Aaron Craft leads the Buckeyes in both assists (4.6) and steals (2.2).

Tubby Smith has seen an improvement in his team's play as it comes in with a 17-8 overall record. The Golden Gophers lost 68-61 to the nationally ranked Wisconsin Badgers in overtime their last time out, which dropped their league record to 5-7. Despite the loss, Minnesota shot 41.8 percent from the field against the Badgers' stifling defense. Wisconsin shot only 35.8 percent from the floor in the same contest. Minnesota is four games out of first place in the Big Ten standings coming into today's bout. The Golden Gophers have outscored their opponents by an average of 5.4 ppg this season, which ranks in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten.

Since losing its leading scorer Trevor Mbakwe for the season after just seven games, Minnesota has relied on its depth to power past opponents. 10 different players are playing more than 10 minutes per game. Rodney Williams is pacing the team with 10.7 points and 5.2 rebounds per game. Julian Welch is second on the team in scoring with 10.1 ppg. In their recent loss to Wisconsin, Andre Hollins came up big off the bench with 20 points as he knocked down 5-of-6 from beyond the arc.

Innercasino NCAA Basketball Betting News

<< Gators take on Tide in Tuscaloosa
Tuscaloosa, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 14th-ranked Florida Gators seek a quick turnaround, as they head to Coleman Coliseum for Southeastern Conference competition with the short-handed Alabama Crimson Tide. This game matches up an apprentice

<< Nets waive Bogans; sign Andre Emmett
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Jersey Nets have waived guard Keith Bogans, just a day after he underwent surgery that will keep him sidelined for the remainder of the season. Bogans had a torn deltoid ligament re

<< Sliding Leafs shoot for rare win in Calgary
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Given that Toronto hasn't won in Calgary in over nine years, the club didn't pick the best time to go on a three-game losing streak. The Maple Leafs hope to avoid posting their longest skid of the season this evening and s

<< Blackhawks try to end lengthy slide in Nashville
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Blackhawks didn't look like a team ready to break out of their longest slump in four years the last time they hit the ice. Doing so against the Nashville Predators may prove difficult as well. The Blackhawks ho

<< Surging Ducks visit Minnesota
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Anaheim Ducks continue to dig themselves out of an early-season hole that has made reaching the playoffs a difficult task. They'll try to pick up their latest victory over a Minnesota Wild team that continues to move sout

No.22 Virginia takes on Clemson in ACC affair >>
Clemson, SC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 22nd-ranked Virginia Cavaliers continue their Atlantic Coast Conference road swing with a visit to the Littlejohn Coliseum to square off with the Clemson Tigers. This will be the 119th battle between the Ca

Rebels and Horned Frogs square off in MWC matchup >>
Fort Worth, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Locked in a three-way tie for first place in the Mountain West Conference standings entering the week, the 11th-ranked UNLV Runnin' Rebels try to give themselves some breathing room as they take on the TCU Horn

Morehead State to host six, but face tough road schedule >>
Morehead, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Morehead State football will play six home games for the first time in four years and make a trip to Eastern Kentucky as part of a 2012 schedule announced Tuesday. The Eagles, who were 3-8 a year ago, last pla

Rounding Third: A's take a big chance on Cespedes >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There was one last major order of business before some baseball teams open camp on Sunday and that was to find a home for Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. Well, that has been taken care of, albeit by a te

Sabres coach Ruff set to return >>
Buffalo, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Buffalo Sabres head coach Lindy Ruff will return to his normal spot behind the bench on Tuesday night against the New Jersey Devils. Ruff had been watching his team from the press box since suffe

MySportsbook.com Posts Heisman Trophy Odds

With 3,919 passing yards, 32 touchdowns and a mere seven interceptions last season, combined with a powerful South Bend Heisman legacy, odds makers at MySportsbook.com have given Notre Dame senior quarterback Brady Quinn the best Heisman Trophy odds at 5-2.

Quinn isn’t the only big man on campus this season.  Oklahoma junior running back and 2004 Heisman runner-up Adrian Peterson, listed at 7-2, rushed for a combined 3,033 yards in his first two years as a college player and will give Quinn a run for his money. 

This online sportsbook has also listed Troy Smith, Ohio State senior quarterback, as another strong favorite to win the 72nd Heisman Trophy.  A 7-1 bet, Smith threw for 2,282 yards last season and also led the Buckeyes to a convincing 34-20 victory over Quinn and the Fighting Irish in last season’s Fiesta Bowl.

Current betting odds Heisman trophy are:

Brady Quinn (QB, Notre Dame)
Adrian Peterson (RB, Oklahoma)
Troy Smith (QB, Ohio State)
Michael Bush (RB, Louisville)
Steve Slaton (RB, West Virginia)
Brian Brohm (QB, Louisville)
Chris Leak (QB, Florida)
Mike Hart (RB, Michigan)
Ted Ginn (WR, Ohio State)
Darius Walker (RB, Notre Dame)
Drew Tate (QB, Iowa)
Marshawn Lynch (RB, Cal)
Kenny Irons (RB, Auburn)
Chad Henne (QB, Michigan)
Kyle Wright (QB, Miami)
Drew Stanton (QB, Michigan State)
Kenneth Darby (RB, Alabama)
JaMarcus Russell (QB, LSU)
Drew Weatherford (QB, Florida State)
Blake Mitchell (QB, South Carolina)
Reggie Ball (QB, Georgia Tech)		 5-2
7-2
7-1
10-1
10-1
12-1
12-1
18-1
18-1
20-1
30-1
35-1
35-1
40-1
50-1
50-1
60-1
60-1
60-1
60-1
60-1

For complete NCAA Football odds visit MySportsbook.com.

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.