Cal hopes lower expectations lead to more success

NCAA Football Betting Lines

08/12/2010 -

BERKELEY, Calif. (AP) -The talk of the Heisman Trophy, a Rose Bowl and BCS bids that was so prevalent around California last year feels as far away as the Golden Bears' last outright Pac-10 title more than a half-century ago.

After yet another promising season came to a disappointing finish, and with star running back Jahvid Best off to the NFL, expectations are much lower for Cal in 2010.

A team that made it to No. 6 in the country last September before finishing outside the Top 25 for the third straight season enters this year picked seventh in the Pac-10.

``Each year brings new challenges and you approach each year differently,'' coach Jeff Tedford said. ``Last year with really high expectations, a lot of talk was, 'We welcome them. We'll do this or that.' That's changed. We're not going into it with that mindset anymore because I do not want to get into the situation where if we stub our toe the whole world caved in. It felt like it. That's not what we need. That's not how we need to live.''

That's exactly what happened last year. The lofty preseason projections were followed by a 3-0 start that led many around Cal to believe the team would finally make it back to the Rose Bowl for the first time since after the 1958 season.

But in less time than it takes a rose to wilt, the Bears lost back to back games to Oregon and Southern California by a combined 72-6. Tedford said that even when the team was 8-3, it felt like 3-8 because of the preseason hype. After a 42-10 defeat at Washington and a Poinsettia Bowl loss to Utah, Cal finished 8-5.

``When we are the top dog it just seems like we fall flat on our face,'' senior linebacker Mike Mohamed said. ``That's something that we've talked about. When we do get to the top, what do we have to do to stay up there. We're capable of getting up there, but we have to be capable of staying up there.''

Based on the preseason prognostications, most experts doubt whether Cal can even get close to the top this season.

That's just the kind of talk the Bears want to hear.

``They tell us not to read the papers and not to watch TV and all that stuff,'' tailback Shane Vereen said. ``But it's really hard not to. It's hard not to listen to what is being said. So we know. We know that we're not slotted to win a lot of games. We're picked to finish seventh. We know all that. It just adds fuel to the fire.''

Vereen has the task of replacing Best, who finished his career at Cal with 2,668 yards rushing, 62 catches for 533 yards and 35 total touchdowns.

Vereen got a head start on that last year when Best missed the final four games of the season after a frightening fall knocked him out and sent him to the hospital with a concussion and sore back.

Vereen rushed for 566 yards and six touchdowns in the final four games for Cal. Vereen's best performance came in the Big Game at Stanford, when he carried 42 times for 193 yards and three scores in a 34-28 victory. Vereen finished his sophomore season with 852 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns.

``It was important for the team and for myself to show that I can do it and that I actually did it,'' Vereen said. ``The running game for our offense is make or break for us because it helps so many other parts of the offense.''

A big year for Vereen will be especially helpful for quarterback Kevin Riley, who bore the brunt of the criticism for the offense's struggles a year ago. Riley shone at times but was woefully inconsistent. He completed only 54.7 percent of his passes and struggled when being pressured by the defense.

Tedford went into camp saying Riley was his starter unless he was beaten out in August by Beau Sweeney or Brock Mansion. Tedford pointed out that Riley was the active leader in the Pac-10 in wins, touchdown passes and starts, adding that he hopes that experience pays off on the field.

``This is his team,'' Tedford said. ``It's his senior year. Kevin's not stupid. He sees what's been out there. Even though he feels like he has a lot to prove, I don't want him thinking he has a lot to prove. I want him playing his game and doing his best and have a little bit of fun with it and not put so much stress on himself.''

Riley's teammates saw a big difference in the quarterback at spring practice and during informal summer workouts. The key is how that translates to the field once the season starts.

``This is the hardest I've ever seen him work,'' Vereen said. ``This is the most focused I've seen him. He's established himself as a leader on this team and the leader of this offense.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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American Idol Betting Season 6 Strategies  

It's that time of year folks.  Betting on American Idol Season 9.  And we have plenty of American Idol Season 6 strategies appearing below.  With the Top 24 finalists revealed, online gambling sites will be offering betting odds on each of them, including MySportsbook.com.

No other “event” has been growing as fast as wagering on American Idol. It has turned into a huge betting event with reasonably high limits and all sorts of profit-making potential for sharp bettors. Last year, MySportsbook.com experienced unprecedented traffic as a result of the American Idol betting craze.

Every week there will be odds to win American Idol, various elimination props and contestant versus contestant match-ups at the MySportsbook.com website.

Whether a fan of America’s top-rated show or watching only because of a wife or girlfriend, here are some of basic strategies to use when betting American Idol.

Odds to Win

There are a few things to consider when looking for the right win bet. First off, remember that this bet is for the long haul. Many people make the mistake of picking the performer who sang the best the previous week. This strategy leads to an underlay situation – betting a price, which is less than what it should be.

All Idol contestants struggle at some point in the competition, so you should always look for value. In last year’s competition alone, two performers who had some of the best performances early in the series were subsequently bet down to low prices - Lisa Tucker and Ace Young. After just a few weeks, Tucker had already been eliminated, while Young quickly became a huge long shot to win America’s largest talent search.

A better strategy is to look for performers who don’t necessarily get the praise from the judges, but show flashes of the talent necessary to go the distance.

Another important thing to remember when betting any contestant to win is the demographic breakdown of the voters, the viewing public and potential future CD purchasers. Unlike sporting events, American Idol is not decided on the field of play – it’s decided by the American public under the guiding influence of the shows producers.

Understand that the great state of Alabama has a mighty edge when it comes to American Idol. 

Therefore, to be successful betting on American Idol, put any personal opinions or prejudices aside and think like the majority of the voting public. Remember that the typical voter is young, female and quite often, Southern.

If a contestant cannot appeal to this demographic, no matter how much talent he or she possesses, they’ll struggle for votes. Looks, demeanor and charisma are extremely important. And it’s no coincidence that every Idol winner so far has hailed from a Southern state.

Elimination Props

Every week MySportsbook.com anticipates offering a prop on who’ll be eliminated from the show each Wednesday night. A suggestion to handicap this is to gauge an overall feel for who’s the least popular contestant left in the competition. Generally the least popular performers have recently appeared in the bottom three and will have been the target of repeated criticism from the judges.

Last year, resources included dialidol.com and votefortheworst.com. Dialidol.com measures the volume of each contestant’s voting line. While by no means a perfect science, it does give a good indication of who is generating votes and who isn’t. Meanwhile, votefortheworst.com is a site that attempts to build support for the worst competitor to keep them in the competition for ‘entertainment’ value. The site has a proven track record of keeping performers around who most feel should have been voted off a long time ago.

Contestant vs. Contestant Match-ups

The best strategy for doing well on match-ups is to assess how close either of the contestants is to being eliminated. If neither is expected to be voted off of the show in the coming weeks, the value is almost always on the underdog. If both are expecting an imminent exit in the near future, the favorite in the match-up might offer value.

Watch for American Idol betting odds on each of the contestants shortly and good luck with these American Idol betting strategies.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.

Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

Additional basketball lines can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com

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